January 16 • CSX •
- CSX put up strong Q4 and 2014 Full year Numbers.
- The decline in crude oil prices has acted as a tailwind, not a headwind.
- Momentum for 2015 is chugging along strong and likely to pick up speed.
- Earnings season will give us a very good indication of where we can expect many oil companies will be as 2015 progresses.
- All companies are not suffering the collapse of crude equally.
- Some opportunities exist now, and more will develop if the price war continues at length.
Tuesday, January 6 • BRK.B, PRGO, FRO, NAT, HRZN, CTB, UNP, AMAT, INTC, AAPL, KLAC, FL, ULTA, MGA, CELG, LMT, WBA, RAI, MO, CP, ANH, CSX, LO, MSFT, SRE, ABBV, DUK, AB, CNI, NSC, SO, CYS, AZN, KMI, MMM •
- Reviewing my 30 best performers of 2014.
- Applying Metric-based analysis to attempt to foretell how 2015 may unfold.
- Narrowing 10 best picks for 2015 out of 30 2014 market beating stocks.
Tue, Dec 30 • AFL •
- AFL is widely perceived to be trading at a significant discount.
- Many cite concerns over the Japanese economy as a major headwind for AFL.
- AFL has a long track record of reliable dividends, which should not be endangered anytime soon.
Fri, Sep 19 • TGTX •
- Recently Announced Phase 3 Trial Fast Tracked by FDA.
- Combination Trials with TG-1101 and TGR-1202 Continue.
- TGTX Positioned to challenge Rituxan if Phase 3 Trial is ultimately successful.
Thu, Sep. 18 • FF •
- FF has suffered this year partially due to the end of government subsidies for biofuels.
- FF is a small-cap stock that has serious upside potential and a compelling dividend yield.
- Risks associated with the biochemical industry may keep FF range-bound for some time.
Wed, Sep. 17 • AVNR •
- AVNR has rose 271% YTD and sits 377% above the 52 week low.
- Any foreseeable upside on AVP-923 has been completely baked in, and then some.
- AVP-923 may not be a novel enough formula to get approval or exclusivity.
- The search for an absolute best MLP fund will always lead to a many forked road.
- Management fees can be a big differentiating factor between otherwise similarly composed funds.
- For some, the tax benefits of MLP Funds do not outweigh management fees, especially “excessive” fees.
Fri, Sep. 12 • MDVN •
- MDVN received approval from FDA for expansion of XTANDI label.
- Could represent 7X revenue growth over next 10 years.
- Future label expansions for XTANDI possible in the near to mid term.
Thu, Sept 11 • HNP,NGLS,SAFT,ARLP,NTI,FIG,ENI,RESI,TAXI,BTE,ARES,OZM,BX,CLDT,KNOP,SDLP,WSTG •
- This is an introduction to my Heavy-Z (dividend heavy) Portfolio Strategy.
- 17 stocks each with a strong set of positive metrics.
- Using metrics in accumulation and distribution rules rather than irrational feelings leads to more successful outcomes.
Thu, Sept 11 • RDNT •
- RDNT is an unlikely top gainer in 2014.
- Precarious debt situation could be a negative overhang in near future.
- It is best to avoid buying into the peak or before the knife starts to fall.
Mon, Sep. 8 • VIVO •
- 2014 has been challenging for VIVO shareholders.
- Three disappointing earnings releases in a row have not been kind.
- VIVO may be nearing a floor where consolidation may take place prior to a short squeeze.
Fri, Aug. 29 • DO, HERO, HOS, SDRL, TDW, VTG •
- Several downgrades recently sent the Offshore Drilling and Services sector lower.
- Seadrill’s cautious outlook in yesterday’s earnings release putting sector under additional pressure.
- Two surprising bull cases worth further investigation have stuck out from the crowd.
Thu, Aug. 28 • AIG, ARES, AUO, ENH, GGB, L, LNC, MS, RDC, SHG, TDW •
- I find the PEG ratio to be the absolute most important metric I use in screening investments.
- Like many others, I like to look at the Price/Book and determine the implied discount, or money sitting on the table.
- Running periodic screens allows us to find opportunities we would otherwise missed out on or never knew existed.
Wed, Aug. 27 • KIN •
- KIN’s first field test on Cerekin did not go successfully.
- The company’s deep pipeline remains and a successful trial could be coming soon.
- All may not be lost for CereKin.
Wed, Aug. 20 • SXL, KYN •
- MLPs have received a lot of extra attention recently due to the announced Kinder Morgan Consolidation.
- MLPs have given my best returns as a lot during the current market upswing.
- Are MLP Funds a better play than holding the MLPs directly?
Fri, Aug. 8 • WAG •
- On August 6, 2014, WAG announced that they would be exercising their option to complete the purchase of Alliance Boots.
- While heavily pressured by Institutional Investors, WAG chose not to incorporate a Tax-Inversion into this transaction.
- This Dip in price presents a very favorable entry point that savvy long-term investors might not see again.
Wed, Aug. 6 • TMO •
- TMO reported very impressive numbers on July 23, 2014.
- The increased synergies from the Life Technologies acquisition and the impending divestiture of the Cole-Parmer business resulted in raised guidance.
- The Life Technologies takeover has led to the emergence of an unrivaled market leader serving research, specialty diagnostics and applied markets.
- XOM led the market lower with disappointing earnings.
- COP followed the market but reported much more encouraging results.
- For those worried about a market correction, this may have been the breaking of the dam.
Fri, Aug. 1 • IACI •
- In what would have been a solid beat, IACI posted first loss in 4 years.
- Strong growth in dating sites offset much of the Aereo Loss.
- Relief rally may extend past current analyst target price.
Thu, Jul. 31 • FRO •
- On April 22, 2014 I made a contrarian call on FRO beginning the long awaited “comeback.”.
- This did not happen. In fact FRO has lost 31% since.
- The industry-wide day-rate renaissance may not materialize, or may appear too late.
Tue, Jul. 29 • SDRL •
- Back on April 22, 2014 I asserted that SDRL was one of my favorite five High Yield Stocks to accumulate.
- SDRL had a generally positive earnings release and mostly appreciative price action during this time.
- Over the last few days SDRL has come under price pressure and increased market skepticism.
Sun, May. 11 • BHLB, VR, MVC, GARS, HCAP, SIMO, PBR •
- I set up a screen using my most relied-upon metrics for consideration of stocks.
- In my experience, sub 2.0 PEG and less than 1.0 P/B have been winners individually.
- My results were a list of stocks I was not very, if at all, familiar with.
- Two years on from the spin-off, both COP and PSX have reported Street beating Q1s.
- COP Eagle Ford and Bakken combined production increased by 41 percent compared with Q1 2013.
- Worldwide, PSX refining utilization was 90 percent and clean product yield was 84 percent in the first quarter of 2014.
Wed, Apr. 30 • GLW •
- Core (non-GAAP) sales in the Display Technologies segment increased 58% from the year-ago period, resulting primarily from the recent consolidation of Corning Precision Materials Co., Ltd.
- Core (non-GAAP) earnings per share were $0.31 per share, an increase of 7% over the first quarter last year and better than expected.
- Core (non-GAAP) sales grew to $2.4 billion, a 32% increase on a year-over-year basis.
Wed, Apr. 30 • PCL, MWV, RYN, WY •
- Southern Resources segment reported operating profit of $31 million during Q1 2014, up about 29.2% year over year.
- Northern Resources segment reported operating profit of $16 million during Q1 2014, up 45.5% year over year.
- Energy and Natural Resource reported operating profit of $6 million during Q1 2014, up 20.0% year over year.
Fri, Apr. 25 • COG •
- Cabot Oil & Gas misses earnings estimate by $0.01, misses by 29.32M on revenues.
- COG Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.26 per share, $0.01 worse than consensus estimate of $0.27.
- Revenues rose 36.6% year/year to $509.8M vs. the $539.12M consensus.
- Identifying value plays that may stand up to a negative market environment.
- Value/growth plays to balance out a high-yield strategy.
- Identifying stocks hampered by external situations which may be alleviated.
Tue, Apr. 22 • SDRL, NAT, FSC, KCAP, HRZN •
- I break down the metrics and thesis of the 5 highest-yielding stocks I am currently accumulating.
- Recent Federal Reserve comments suggest low interest rates will remain the norm for an extended period of time.
- High-yield stocks have a built-in resistance to large downward market swings.